Football Predictions

[Listener]

I used to do these on my blog, but I don't have a blog anymore... so I'll just throw 'em here.  I'm crawling the walls waiting for something to happen at work.  This'll kill half an hour or so.

AFC East
The Jets?  Not with Hanging Chad at QB, and not with Patrick Ramsey either.  The Bills?  Unless JP Losman surprises a lot of people, he's not the answer either.  The Dolphins are banking a lot on Daunte Culpepper.  The Patriots are always a threat.  Not really a tough division, but a tough division to call.  I'm going to say the Dolphins and Patriots will both go 10-6, but the Patriots will win the division by beating the Dolphins... unless the Fins bring out the Orange Uniforms, in which they have yet to be defeated.

AFC North
As much as we all want to see Steve McNair rescue Baltimore or Charlie Frye be the next Tom Brady, it's not likely to happen.  I'm giving this division to Pittsburgh as the returning NFL champions, but the Bengals will make a strong push.  Still, the Bengals are one good hit from being in the Anthony Wright era.

AFC South
For the past three years, I've been predicting that the Jaguars will supplant the Colts as division winners.  Last year, they had a good enough record to take four of the eight divisions in the NFL (I think that's what it was... 12-4 ain't nothin' to sneeze at...).  But the Colts did them one better, and that was enough.  If I say the Colts will win the division, will the Jags win it instead?  I don't know, but I'll stick with the Jaguars.

AFC West
This division is so full of high-scoring teams that it's been tough to pick a real winner.  This year is different, though:  the Chiefs haven't upgraded their defense, the Raiders offense continues not clicking, and the Chargers are dropping everything on the shoulders of Philip Rivers, LT, and Antonio Gates, and hoping it's enough.  Denver will once again win the division and get knocked out in the playoffs.

Playoff Seeding:
1. Pittsburgh
2. Denver
3. New England
4. Jacksonville
5. Indianapolis
6. Miami (I just don't think Cincinnati will do it again, not this year)

Round 1:  Miami d. New England (wishful thinking, I know) | Indianapolis d. Jacksonville (the Colts don't self-destruct THAT early in the playoffs.
Round 2:  Pittsburgh d. Miami (they're just a better team) | Indianapolis d. Denver (I don't think Denver can beat them)
Championship:  Pittsburgh d. Denver (Denver ain't making it back to the big dance)

NFC East
There's a lot of talent in this division, but a lot of problems as well.  I don't think Donte Stallworth is a legitimate #1 receiver threat, and the Eagles really need to start running the ball.  The Redskins spend a lot of money but it never seems to work out; last year was an uphill battle all the way, and how much does Mark Brunell really have left?  The Cowboys are solid on paper, but they also seem to self-destruct a lot.  The Giants will repeat, but it won't be easy.

NFC North
Okay, look, I'm going to break this down as best as I can:  there is no clear good playoff contender here.  The Bears don't have an offense, the Packers are entering a slump, the Vikings defense is only good some of the time and they don't really have a #1 receiver, and the Lions are the Lions.  I see the Lions doing well this year with Rod Marinelli's no-nonsense attitude, and maybe making a playoff push, but they won't get in.  I'm giving the division to the Vikings because, of all the NFC North, they're the only team I think won't melt down down the stretch or be destroyed by one big injury.

NFC South
Without a doubt, this is the toughest division in the NFL.  New Orleans is always a threat to take you out if you're not paying attention.  Atlanta can win if you don't bottle up Mike Vick and the rushing attack -- even without TJ Duckett -- and Vick throws up enough wild-ass passes to make you have to drop guys back.  Tampa Bay now has a real offense with Simms, Williams, and Galloway.  And Carolina, despite Jake Delhomme's occasional bad decision, is most definitely the team to beat this year.  I say they take the division.

NFC West
Arizona has been perenially ready to take the next step, but first they have to have a season with double-digit wins.  It might even be this season.  Plus, they have an actual shot at at least making the playoffs (if not winning any games) because Shaun Alexander is on the cover of Madden 07.  If only Dennis Green could manage not to play the QB shuffle when Kurt Warner goes down... and he will.  As for the other teams:  the Rams are going to make a push, as they always do, but I don't think their defense is good enough.  The 49ers are on the way back up, but if Alex Smith doesn't turn it around from last season -- and manage to play a whole season -- they'll never win a division.  Seattle wins the division by default.

Playoff seeding:
1. Seattle (based on strength of schedule)
2. New York
3. Carolina (no higher because of how tough their division is)
4. Minnesota
5. Tampa Bay
6. Washington, unless Mike Vick goes down with a season-ending injury and Matt Schaub starts QBing the Falcons.  Then the Falcons will do it.

In case you haven't heard my Falcons rant, it's this:  Mike Vick will never lead this team to a Superbowl, let alone the Lombardi trophy.  He can run, and he can throw short passes, but he'll never have a talented receiving corps if he doesn't start pulling the ball down and not throwing it 10 feet over everybody's head.  Matt Schaub, IMO, is a much better player.  When he throws the ball, it gets there, and it gets where it's supposed to be, not in a position where the receiver has to stretch out and open himself to injury from a big hit.  And when there's nothing open, he can run well enough to keep the chains moving.  I understand WHY the Falcons want a first-round pick for him, and I think that if Chad Pennington doesn't do it this year, the Jets will pony one up.  A couple of years ago, there was a site called "startbriangriese.com" about how much better Griese was than Jay Fiedler (in Miami).  I'm tempted to start one called "startmattschaub.com".

Anyway.

Round 1:  Carolina d. Washington (completely overwhelming them) | Tampa Bay d. Minnesota (TB's the more complete team)
Round 2:  Seattle d. Tampa Bay (weather advantage) | Carolina d. New York (the Giants just aren't that good, not yet... but soon)
Championship:  Carolina d. Seattle (do you really think the Panthers will go down again like they did last year?  I don't.)

This is Carolina's year to win the Superbowl.  I say 30-20.

Yup, like I thought, half an hour down, 3.5 more to go.

[VikingJuice]

Big Ben is out for this Thursday and Ward is day to day, Miami might just open with a win against the depleted/injured champs.

[Listener]

Big Ben is out for this Thursday and Ward is day to day, Miami might just open with a win against the depleted/injured champs.

Yeah, I saw... I'm totally playing the Miami D now instead of the TB D in a couple of my leagues.

But I stand by my predictions.