The "Rocky 2" Strategy

[Listener]

I think I've figured out why Peyton Manning hasn't been throwing a lot of touchdown passes this season.

In Rocky 2, Mickey taught the left-handed Rocky Balboa how to fight right-handed. Apollo Creed wouldn't have gameplanned for that, thus giving Rocky an advantage. (Also, it was to protect Rocky's left eye, which had been heavily damaged in his first fight against Apollo.) Rocky fought right-handed for 14 rounds. Toward the end of the fight (in the 13th or 14th, I forget which), Mickey kept telling Rocky to switch to left-handed boxing, but Rocky didn't want to. He didn't want to use what he considered trickery.

Finally, in the 15th round, Rocky made the switch to left-handed boxing — which was the eventual goal of Mickey's strategy — and eventually won the fight.

Maybe that's what Tony Dungy and the Colts are doing this season. The running game and the defense are his right-handed rounds — he uses the left hand (Manning's passing prowess) at times, just as Rocky did on occasion — short passes near the goal-line, where they would be appropriate for any team, not just the Colts — but the focus of his early-round strategy is to fight right-handed. Then, in the 15th round — the playoffs, if you will — Manning will throw 6 or 7 TDs per game and obliterate the opposition.

I can't think of any other reason why the Colts aren't doing exactly what they did on offense last year. Especially against defenses (like the Rams defense so far tonight) that don't disguise their coverages and make it especially-confusing for him to throw the ball.

(This will be a post on my blog tomorrow, so if you see it somewhere else and wonder why it looks so familiar, now you know.)

[VikingJuice]

I'd say that like every other great player in the league, teams have scouted Manning well and have realized that he has certain tricks.  Chief amoung them is the play action pass.  If you notice, few teams this year are committing the safeties to run support except on obvious run downs.  This leaves them free of run support duties, thus leaving them less vulnerable to play fakes, until it's obvious that a back is carrying the ball and it let's them sit in centerfield playing a soft cover 2 and shut down anything really explosive.  As long as the LB's honor their responsibilties underneath and take away obvious passing zones and the teams don't blitz too much, they force Peyton to be more patient and methodically move down the field.  This makes for longer drives, eating more clock, greater use of run to balance things and move the chains, and it allows for more potential turnovers.  It also reduces the total number of drives in a game.  If you score on 50% of your drives and that number is reduced from 15 drives a game to 10, you reduce the amount of points you give up in a game.  Then, if you look at their play calling, it seems as though there are about 5 to 8 more run plays per game and more short check down routes.

It's the same thing they used to do to Marino.  Last year, like early in Marino's career, teams tried blitzing and when a QB is smart like Manning/Marino, they get good at picking that up presnap and do more than just select a hot route, they even modify the route to key on the defenders exact position and technique.  This allowed for a lot of big plays last year and teams got lit up.

Of the 5 teams that they've played this season, 4 of them run almost exclusively zone pass schemes.  The Titans are the 5th and they run about half and half man/zone.

Conventional wisdom would say that zones should be easy for a veteran to pick apart but you'd be forgetting that the league is made up of copy cat coaches and everyone on the planets has watched, studied and mapped out EXACTLY how the Patriots took Manning apart each of the last 3 seasons.  More than anything else, they are copying the Pats defensive schemes.  On top of that, 4 of the five teams they've played were coached by head guys who cut their teeth on the defensive side of the ball and most either played against or coached against Marino themselves in the past.

Then there's the issue of the Colts running the ball with different plays, some actually using a fullback(and removing 1 WR to do so) has put them in the mindset that they actually want to control the clock a little more.  And removing a wideout limits how tricky your routes can be off of play action.  You can only do some many things with two guys running routes over the top and a TE undernearth. 

You can't control the clock with a finesse run game that relies on draws, traps and stretch plays.  You've gotta mix in some power stuff, some counter plays and some inside zone runs that aren't geared towards popping outside on the corner.  Coupled with this adjusted philosophy is probably a more conservative set of play calls to protect both the ball and the defense from the high risk potential turnover plays in your own territory that always lead to quick and easy scores by the other team

All of these things, plus the fact that Peyton's throws just haven't been as sharp has led to a decline in his productivity.

I think the Colts have stripped down their offense in favor of more ball control.  Does that mean they don't have it available, no, it just means that they are trying to manage the game differently and apparently it's working well so far.

They are a fast break team playing half court offense.  But deep down, they know that they can run and gun with the best of them when the situation calls for it.  Really, it makes them the best of both worlds and that's the toughest kind of team to beat.

[DownSouth]

If he sees a DL with the last name Lang next year he better take a time out.

[VikingJuice]

If he sees a DL with the last name Lang next year he better take a time out.

Why?  The only one I know of named Lang is Kenard Lang is he's pretty harmless on the field over the course of his career.

[ignom]

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/B000002G6A/002-3000031-3419218?v=glance

[DownSouth]

If he sees a DL with the last name Lang next year he better take a time out.

Why?  The only one I know of named Lang is Kenard Lang is he's pretty harmless on the field over the course of his career.

http://espn.starwave.com/media/pg2/2001/1206/photo/clubber_lang_i.jpg

[VikingJuice]

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/B000002G6A/002-3000031-3419218?v=glance

Are you just googling random guys named Lang?  I don't get the musical tie in...

[VikingJuice]

Nevermind, Rocky, Lang, yeah yeah.  I thought you guys were actually talking football for a second.  Nevermind.

[DownSouth]

Nevermind, Rocky, Lang, yeah yeah.  I thought you guys were actually talking football for a second.  Nevermind.

Sorry.  Pretty much only watch college since I stopped gambling.

[VikingJuice]

Nevermind, Rocky, Lang, yeah yeah.  I thought you guys were actually talking football for a second.  Nevermind.

Sorry.  Pretty much only watch college since I stopped gambling.

'cause nobody gambles on the college game?

And good for you for stopping gambling.  Was it an addiction type thing?

[DownSouth]

Nevermind, Rocky, Lang, yeah yeah.  I thought you guys were actually talking football for a second.  Nevermind.

Sorry.  Pretty much only watch college since I stopped gambling.

'cause nobody gambles on the college game?

And good for you for stopping gambling.  Was it an addiction type thing?

I gambled on college too, but I also watch college because I enjoy it.  Pro not so much.  No addiction.  I never let myself get below $100.  Bookie moved.

[VikingJuice]

Nevermind, Rocky, Lang, yeah yeah.  I thought you guys were actually talking football for a second.  Nevermind.

Sorry.  Pretty much only watch college since I stopped gambling.

'cause nobody gambles on the college game?

And good for you for stopping gambling.  Was it an addiction type thing?

I gambled on college too, but I also watch college because I enjoy it.  Pro not so much.  No addiction.  I never let myself get below $100.  Bookie moved.

You must be crushed.

[Listener]

I'd say that like every other great player in the league, teams have scouted Manning well and have realized that he has certain tricks.  Chief amoung them is the play action pass. 

Wow.  You know way more about football than I do.

Speaking of play action passes, Mike Vick pulled an awesome one at the goal line a couple weeks ago.  He just hid the ball by his hip and NO ONE knew he had it there.  He just stood there, like he was waiting for a bus or something, then *dink* touchdown.

[VikingJuice]

I'd say that like every other great player in the league, teams have scouted Manning well and have realized that he has certain tricks.  Chief amoung them is the play action pass. 

Wow.  You know way more about football than I do.

Speaking of play action passes, Mike Vick pulled an awesome one at the goal line a couple weeks ago.  He just hid the ball by his hip and NO ONE knew he had it there.  He just stood there, like he was waiting for a bus or something, then *dink* touchdown.

I love Vick's playaction.  I've seen him do exactly what you're talking about.  It's pretty amazing.  I've seen him fake it, and have his hand behind his butt holding the ball and just stand there. Then what seems like hours later, pop! the ball comes flying out for a big gain. 

And about the knowing of football, I'm just a big geek when it comes to that.  I'd like to think I know more than many commentators in the business.  I've actually thought about trying to work my way into that but haven't found a way that is financially suitable yet.  Since I'm not a former athlete of note or former coach of note, my expertise means jack squat financially because I'd have to do some sort of low pay internship to get my foot in the door.